‘Economic turnaround’ in the time of state sanctioned misogyny & intolerance of dissent
Not to trivialize for a moment the immeasurable devastation undoubtedly caused by rejection, love-sickness, or cholera for that matter, but imagine that an even graver dystopian reality than Márquez’s exists in today’s so-called ‘free world’, with potentially more persistent and extensive harmful implications; one where information is only deemed relevant and accurate if released or sanctioned by the Minister of Finance, even forsaking all other domestic official sources; where conflicting (even if ‘official’) information / data are summarily dismissed by the Minister as irrelevant, inaccurate, and subject to revision; where those who dare to publicly express contradictory opinions are consequentially ‘blocked’, discredited as biased, irrelevant, or ‘incorrect’ by the Minister; where the risk of being dismissed as such by the Minister appears to be greater for females; and where the Minister consistently attempts to alter the ‘facts’ in the public domain.
The use of propaganda or ‘fake news’ in pursuit of public persuasion is almost as old as humanity itself, and as such, the selective use of data and (mis)information is not entirely unexpected, particularly as elections draw closer. What is disturbingly but increasingly common in T&T however, is the state’s apparent growing intolerance of dissent, and its concomitant agenda to manipulate public information — behaviour typically reserved for dictatorships or otherwise oppressive regimes. It’s no surprise therefore, that on the 2019 Index of Economic Freedom, T&T is categorized as ‘mostly unfree’ with a score of 57.0, down by 0.7, and well below regional and global averages. T&T is the 112th freest country out of 180 countries measured. This erosion of freedom and democracy carries untold risks which cannot be overemphasized.
Regardless of which data we cite, the ‘economic turnaround’ touted by the Minister on the basis of three quarters of positive growth is everything but. In the context of an economy which has averaged ZERO real GDP growth for the past 10 years, and where the size of the economy remains 10% smaller in nominal terms than it was in 2008, three quarters of positive growth is welcomed, certainly, but is decidedly NOT a reflection of an economic turnaround by any standard commonly used by economists, much less engineers.
Furthermore, a true economic turnaround would be characterized not just by a sustained return to growth, but by lower fiscal deficits and falling debt, as fiscal stimulation would become unnecessary. In stark contrast however, the Minister has inexplicably chosen to expand fiscal expenditure by TTD300 million, driving the deficit to TTD7.6 billion or 4.8% of GDP, while gross public sector debt already stood at 78.3% of GDP in 2018. Perhaps engineers consider these levels “well within international benchmarks”, but economists generally do not.
The Central Bank’s (CBTT) 2018 Annual Economic Survey stated “According to initial projections from the Central Statistical Office (CSO), real GDP grew by 1.9% in 2018 after declining by 1.9% in 2017 (Table 1).” However, Table 1 actually shows 2018 growth at -2.3% and 2017 at -6.0%, for which the relevant footnote states “Real GDP growth rates are sourced from the CSO.” Perhaps it was simply an oversight that the CBTT did not update Table 1, or could this have been a Freudian slip, or a passive-aggressive expression of dissent, or even a cry for help, if not their independence? Time, as always, will tell.
